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Prelims1 Women's Bantamweight

Tonya Evinger vs Lina Lansberg

UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith ·Ericsson Globe
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Tonya Evinger
Lina Lansberg
72% 28%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
38
Age
Δ 1y
37
19-9
Career record
Δ 15 pp
10-9
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Evinger: 6 sig / 1 TD · Lansberg: 50 sig / 1 TD
Tonya Evinger
Lina Lansberg
34
Sig strikes landed
39
71
Sig strikes attempted
68
65
Total strikes landed
69
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
212s
Control time
172s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Tonya Evinger

"Triple Threat"
19-9 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
L UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
Blue corner
L1

Lina Lansberg

"Elbow Queen"
10-9
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—