Prelims1
Lightweight
Stevie Ray vs Leonardo Santos
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith
·Ericsson Globe
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stevie Ray
Leonardo Santos
73%
27%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 5"
75"
29
Age
Δ 10y
39
24-9
Career record
Δ 2 pp
19-7-1
W1
Current streak
W4
9
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ray: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Santos: 12 sig / 0 TD
Stevie Ray
Leonardo Santos
38
Sig strikes landed
25
74
Sig strikes attempted
64
45
Total strikes landed
31
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
75s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Stevie Ray
"Braveheart"
24-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
Blue corner
W4
Leonardo Santos
19-7-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
6 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—