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Prelims1 Welterweight

Rostem Akman vs Sergey Khandozhko

UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith ·Ericsson Globe
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Rostem Akman
Sergey Khandozhko
17% 83%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
27
Age
Δ 0y
27

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Akman: 39 sig / 2 TD · Khandozhko: 60 sig / 1 TD
Rostem Akman
Sergey Khandozhko
26
Sig strikes landed
42
63
Sig strikes attempted
84
38
Total strikes landed
62
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
94s
Control time
173s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Rostem Akman

0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
Blue corner

Sergey Khandozhko

"Honda"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27