Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Charles Oliveira
Nik Lentz
82%
18%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
68"
30
Age
Δ 5y
35
38-11
Career record
Δ 9 pp
31-12-2
W4
Current streak
W2
23
UFC fights in our DB
21
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Oliveira: 38 sig / 0 TD ·
Lentz: 18 sig / 2 TD
Charles Oliveira
Nik Lentz
34
Sig strikes landed
30
57
Sig strikes attempted
50
51
Total strikes landed
53
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.6
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
138s
Control time
216s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
53%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
38-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
23 fights · 14-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
W
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
31-12-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
21 fights · 13-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
L
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—