Main
Middleweight
Antonio Carlos Junior vs Ian Heinisch
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee
·Blue Cross Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Antonio Carlos Junior
Ian Heinisch
60%
40%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 7"
72"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
12-5
Career record
Δ 4 pp
15-5
W5
Current streak
W1
10
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Carlos Junior: 15 sig / 4 TD ·
Heinisch: 39 sig / 1 TD
Antonio Carlos Junior
Ian Heinisch
34
Sig strikes landed
33
83
Sig strikes attempted
66
51
Total strikes landed
43
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.3
6.7
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
209s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Antonio Carlos Junior
"Cara de Sapato"
12-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
10 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
Blue corner
W1
Ian Heinisch
"The Hurricane"
15-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—