Main
Welterweight
Rafael Dos Anjos vs Kevin Lee
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee
·Blue Cross Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Rafael Dos Anjos
Kevin Lee
52%
48%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 7"
77"
35
Age
Δ 8y
27
32-18
Career record
Δ 3 pp
18-9
L2
Current streak
L1
23
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 4
Dos Anjos: 60 sig / 4 TD ·
Lee: 35 sig / 6 TD
Rafael Dos Anjos
Kevin Lee
61
Sig strikes landed
70
112
Sig strikes attempted
148
84
Total strikes landed
94
1.1
Takedowns landed
2.5
4.6
Takedowns attempted
6.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
145s
Control time
261s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Rafael Dos Anjos
32-18
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
23 fights · 16-7
Last 5
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
L
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
W
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
Blue corner
L1
Kevin Lee
"The Motown Phenom"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
14 fights · 10-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—