Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Patrick Cummins vs Ed Herman
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee
·Blue Cross Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Patrick Cummins
Ed Herman
40%
60%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
77"
38
Age
Δ 0y
39
10-8
Career record
Δ 6 pp
27-17
L2
Current streak
L3
12
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Cummins: 22 sig / 1 TD ·
Herman: 11 sig / 0 TD
Patrick Cummins
Ed Herman
44
Sig strikes landed
40
95
Sig strikes attempted
81
58
Total strikes landed
57
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.3
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
177s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Patrick Cummins
"Durkin"
10-8
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
12 fights · 6-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
Blue corner
L3
Ed Herman
"Short Fuse"
27-17
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
12 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
L
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
L
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—