Prelims1
Featherweight
Michael Trizano vs Grant Dawson
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee
·Blue Cross Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michael Trizano
Grant Dawson
18%
82%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
27
Age
Δ 2y
25
12-3
Career record
Δ 6 pp
25-3-1
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Trizano: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Dawson: 27 sig / 3 TD
Michael Trizano
Grant Dawson
35
Sig strikes landed
41
91
Sig strikes attempted
99
58
Total strikes landed
71
0.4
Takedowns landed
2.7
3.1
Takedowns attempted
6.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
96s
Control time
252s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Michael Trizano
"The Lone Wolf"
12-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
Blue corner
W1
Grant Dawson
"KGD"
25-3-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—