Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Tony Ferguson
Donald Cerrone
52%
48%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
35
Age
Δ 1y
36
27-11
Career record
Δ 3 pp
37-17
W8
Current streak
W3
15
UFC fights in our DB
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 2
Ferguson: 104 sig / 0 TD ·
Cerrone: 68 sig / 1 TD
Tony Ferguson
Donald Cerrone
74
Sig strikes landed
63
152
Sig strikes attempted
151
88
Total strikes landed
65
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
0.8
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
50s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
27-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
15 fights · 14-1
Last 5
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
Blue corner
W3
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
37-17
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
31 fights · 23-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—