Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Aljamain Sterling
Pedro Munhoz
85%
15%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 6"
65"
30
Age
Δ 3y
33
27-5
Career record
Δ 17 pp
21-10
W3
Current streak
W3
12
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sterling: 174 sig / 0 TD ·
Munhoz: 105 sig / 0 TD
Aljamain Sterling
Pedro Munhoz
75
Sig strikes landed
55
144
Sig strikes attempted
134
98
Total strikes landed
61
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
6.1
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
195s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Aljamain Sterling
"Funk Master"
27-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
W
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
W
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
Blue corner
W3
Pedro Munhoz
"The Young Punisher"
21-10
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
12 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
W
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
L
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—