Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Alexa Grasso
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
·United Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Alexa Grasso
30%
70%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
34
Age
Δ 8y
26
16-11
Career record
Δ 12 pp
17-6-1
L2
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kowalkiewicz: 90 sig / 0 TD ·
Grasso: 148 sig / 0 TD
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Alexa Grasso
66
Sig strikes landed
77
160
Sig strikes attempted
184
87
Total strikes landed
96
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
99s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
83%
KO/TKO
10%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
16-11
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
L
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
Blue corner
L1
Alexa Grasso
17-6-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—