Back to UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Tatiana Suarez vs Nina Nunes

UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes ·United Center

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Tatiana Suarez
Nina Nunes
84% 16%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
64"
28
Age
Δ 5y
34
14-1
Career record
Δ 30 pp
12-7
W4
Current streak
W4
4
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Suarez: 75 sig / 4 TD · Nunes: 48 sig / 0 TD
Tatiana Suarez
Nina Nunes
53
Sig strikes landed
33
107
Sig strikes attempted
60
79
Total strikes landed
45
2.6
Takedowns landed
-0.2
5.2
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
357s
Control time
18s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
26%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W4

Tatiana Suarez

14-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database 4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
W UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
W UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
Blue corner
W4

Nina Nunes

12-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
W UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
W UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
W UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
L UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit