Back to UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
Prelims1 Featherweight

Ricardo Lamas vs Calvin Kattar

UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes ·United Center

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Ricardo Lamas
Calvin Kattar
44% 56%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
37
Age
Δ 6y
31
21-8
Career record
Δ 2 pp
24-10
W1
Current streak
W1
15
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lamas: 12 sig / 0 TD · Kattar: 22 sig / 0 TD
Ricardo Lamas
Calvin Kattar
34
Sig strikes landed
49
86
Sig strikes attempted
118
47
Total strikes landed
68
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.5
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
137s
Control time
46s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Ricardo Lamas

"The Bully"
21-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
L UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
L UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
W UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
Blue corner
W1

Calvin Kattar

24-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
L UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
W UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
W UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2