Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Warlley Alves
Sergio Moraes
67%
33%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
28
Age
Δ 8y
37
15-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
14-7-1
L1
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Alves: 72 sig / 0 TD ·
Moraes: 20 sig / 0 TD
Warlley Alves
Sergio Moraes
34
Sig strikes landed
33
73
Sig strikes attempted
70
51
Total strikes landed
48
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.4
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
151s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Warlley Alves
15-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—
W
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
Blue corner
L1
Sergio Moraes
"The Panther"
14-7-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
12 fights · 8-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—