Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
BJ Penn
Clay Guida
21%
79%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
40
Age
Δ 3y
37
16-15-2
Career record
Δ 14 pp
38-23
L6
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Penn: 64 sig / 0 TD ·
Guida: 80 sig / 1 TD
BJ Penn
Clay Guida
35
Sig strikes landed
46
93
Sig strikes attempted
111
48
Total strikes landed
77
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.7
0.9
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
30s
Control time
201s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L6
BJ Penn
"The Prodigy"
16-15-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
10 fights · 1-8
Last 5
L
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
L1
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38-23
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
16 fights · 9-7
Last 5
L
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
L
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—