Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Thiago Moises
Kurt Holobaugh
56%
44%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
24
Age
Δ 9y
33
19-11
Career record
Δ 3 pp
22-11
L1
Current streak
L3
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Moises: 66 sig / 4 TD ·
Holobaugh: 39 sig / 2 TD
Thiago Moises
Kurt Holobaugh
35
Sig strikes landed
35
88
Sig strikes attempted
82
51
Total strikes landed
64
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
89s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Thiago Moises
19-11
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
Blue corner
L3
Kurt Holobaugh
"The Hurt"
22-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
L
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—