Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Rogerio Nogueira vs Ryan Spann
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
·Farmasi Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rogerio Nogueira
Ryan Spann
28%
72%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
79"
43
Age
Δ 15y
28
24-10
Career record
Δ 1 pp
25-11
W1
Current streak
W1
10
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Nogueira: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Spann: 13 sig / 1 TD
Rogerio Nogueira
Ryan Spann
27
Sig strikes landed
48
58
Sig strikes attempted
86
38
Total strikes landed
96
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
0.7
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
79s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Rogerio Nogueira
"Minotouro"
24-10
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
43
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
L
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
L
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
Blue corner
W1
Ryan Spann
"Superman"
25-11
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—