Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Thiago Alves
Laureano Staropoli
51%
49%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
36
Age
Δ 9y
26
24-15
Career record
Δ 5 pp
10-5
W1
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Alves: 58 sig / 1 TD ·
Staropoli: 54 sig / 1 TD
Thiago Alves
Laureano Staropoli
69
Sig strikes landed
90
167
Sig strikes attempted
225
83
Total strikes landed
96
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.2
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
98s
Control time
24s
Method
Decision
85%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
4%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Thiago Alves
"Pitbull"
24-15
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
13 fights · 6-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
L
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
Blue corner
W1
Laureano Staropoli
"Pepi"
10-5
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—