Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jose Aldo
Alexander Volkanovski
42%
58%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
33
Age
Δ 2y
31
33-10
Career record
Δ 11 pp
29-4
W2
Current streak
W6
13
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Aldo: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Volkanovski: 95 sig / 0 TD
Jose Aldo
Alexander Volkanovski
52
Sig strikes landed
69
136
Sig strikes attempted
134
65
Total strikes landed
93
0.5
Takedowns landed
2.0
1.5
Takedowns attempted
6.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
28s
Control time
207s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Jose Aldo
33-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
13 fights · 10-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
L
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
Blue corner
W6
Alexander Volkanovski
"The Great"
29-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—