Main
Featherweight
Cub Swanson vs Shane Burgos
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy
·Canadian Tire Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Cub Swanson
Shane Burgos
52%
48%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
36
Age
Δ 7y
28
31-15
Career record
Δ 17 pp
16-3
L3
Current streak
W1
16
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Swanson: 129 sig / 0 TD ·
Burgos: 134 sig / 0 TD
Cub Swanson
Shane Burgos
73
Sig strikes landed
71
149
Sig strikes attempted
150
80
Total strikes landed
76
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
74s
Control time
36s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Cub Swanson
31-15
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
16 fights · 10-6
Last 5
L
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
Blue corner
W1
Shane Burgos
"Hurricane"
16-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—