Main
Middleweight
Derek Brunson vs Elias Theodorou
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy
·Canadian Tire Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Derek Brunson
Elias Theodorou
52%
48%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
35
Age
Δ 4y
31
23-10
Career record
Δ 15 pp
17-3
L2
Current streak
W3
14
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brunson: 56 sig / 4 TD ·
Theodorou: 65 sig / 0 TD
Derek Brunson
Elias Theodorou
34
Sig strikes landed
45
84
Sig strikes attempted
105
48
Total strikes landed
66
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.4
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
109s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Derek Brunson
"The One"
23-10
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
L
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
Blue corner
W3
Elias Theodorou
"The Spartan"
17-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—