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Al Iaquinta vs Donald Cerrone

UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy ·Canadian Tire Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Al Iaquinta
Donald Cerrone
35% 65%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
32
Age
Δ 4y
36
15-7-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
37-17
W1
Current streak
W2
12
UFC fights in our DB
30

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Iaquinta: 90 sig / 0 TD · Cerrone: 138 sig / 0 TD
Al Iaquinta
Donald Cerrone
65
Sig strikes landed
74
143
Sig strikes attempted
228
72
Total strikes landed
69
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
1.00
86s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Al Iaquinta

"Raging"
15-7-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
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L UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
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W UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
W UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W2

Donald Cerrone

"Cowboy"
37-17 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 30 fights · 22-8
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
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L UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
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