Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Alex Oliveira
Mike Perry
66%
34%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
71"
31
Age
Δ 4y
28
22-13-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
14-9
L1
Current streak
L1
14
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Oliveira: 48 sig / 0 TD ·
Perry: 65 sig / 0 TD
Alex Oliveira
Mike Perry
45
Sig strikes landed
41
93
Sig strikes attempted
79
68
Total strikes landed
50
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.7
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
178s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alex Oliveira
"Cowboy"
22-13-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
14 fights · 9-4
Last 5
L
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
L1
Mike Perry
"Platinum"
14-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—