Main
Heavyweight
Greg Hardy vs Dmitrii Smoliakov
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson
·BB&T Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Greg Hardy
Dmitrii Smoliakov
62%
38%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
31
Age
Δ 6y
37
7-6
Career record
Δ 15 pp
9-4
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hardy: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Smoliakov: 1 sig / 0 TD
Greg Hardy
Dmitrii Smoliakov
31
Sig strikes landed
25
62
Sig strikes attempted
44
56
Total strikes landed
38
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.0
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
97s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Greg Hardy
"Prince of War"
7-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
Blue corner
L2
Dmitrii Smoliakov
"The Lifeguard"
9-4
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
37
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—