Main
Middleweight
Jacare Souza vs Jack Hermansson
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson
·BB&T Center
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Jacare Souza
Jack Hermansson
48%
52%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 6"
78"
39
Age
Δ 8y
31
27-10
Career record
Δ 2 pp
25-10
W1
Current streak
W3
12
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Souza: 90 sig / 0 TD ·
Hermansson: 148 sig / 3 TD
Jacare Souza
Jack Hermansson
29
Sig strikes landed
55
54
Sig strikes attempted
118
48
Total strikes landed
86
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.5
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
178s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jacare Souza
27-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
Blue corner
W3
Jack Hermansson
"The Joker"
25-10
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
W
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—