Back to UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson
Prelims2 Lightweight

Jim Miller vs Jason Gonzalez

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson ·BB&T Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jim Miller
Jason Gonzalez
79% 21%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
36
Age
Δ 7y
29
39-20
Career record
Δ 1 pp
11-6
L1
Current streak
L1
26
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Miller: 6 sig / 2 TD · Gonzalez: 10 sig / 0 TD
Jim Miller
Jason Gonzalez
26
Sig strikes landed
29
38
Sig strikes attempted
53
42
Total strikes landed
40
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.3
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
162s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
61%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Jim Miller

"A-10"
39-20 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database 26 fights · 14-11
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
W UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
L UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
L UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
Blue corner
L1

Jason Gonzalez

"Nicoya"
11-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
L UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—