Back to UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson
Prelims1 Heavyweight

Andrei Arlovski vs Augusto Sakai

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson ·BB&T Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Andrei Arlovski
Augusto Sakai
26% 74%
Why
77"
Reach
77"
40
Age
Δ 12y
28
34-24
Career record
Δ 15 pp
17-5-1
L2
Current streak
W1
14
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Arlovski: 75 sig / 0 TD · Sakai: 42 sig / 0 TD
Andrei Arlovski
Augusto Sakai
66
Sig strikes landed
83
130
Sig strikes attempted
114
67
Total strikes landed
89
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
68s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Andrei Arlovski

"The Pitbull"
34-24 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database 14 fights · 6-7
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
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L UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
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W UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
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W UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
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L UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
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Blue corner
W1

Augusto Sakai

17-5-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
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