Back to UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson
Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Carla Esparza vs Virna Jandiroba

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson ·BB&T Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Carla Esparza
Virna Jandiroba
38% 62%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 1"
64"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
L2
Current streak
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8
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Esparza: 25 sig / 4 TD · Jandiroba: 17 sig / 3 TD
Carla Esparza
Virna Jandiroba
33
Sig strikes landed
40
80
Sig strikes attempted
86
64
Total strikes landed
73
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
5.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
218s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Carla Esparza

"Cookie Monster"
20-9
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
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L UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
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W UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
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W UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
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Blue corner

Virna Jandiroba

"Carcara"
0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31