Prelims1
Welterweight
Sultan Aliev vs Keita Nakamura
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik
·Yubileyny Sports Palace
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sultan Aliev
Keita Nakamura
26%
74%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
35
Age
Δ 0y
35
15-4
Career record
Δ 4 pp
35-10-2
L1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Aliev: 25 sig / 2 TD ·
Nakamura: 29 sig / 0 TD
Sultan Aliev
Keita Nakamura
22
Sig strikes landed
27
51
Sig strikes attempted
67
41
Total strikes landed
52
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.5
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
173s
Control time
181s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Sultan Aliev
15-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
W
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
L
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
Blue corner
W1
Keita Nakamura
"K-Taro"
35-10-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—