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Islam Makhachev vs Arman Tsarukyan

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik ·Yubileyny Sports Palace
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Islam Makhachev
Arman Tsarukyan
65% 35%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
28
Age
Δ 5y
22
W4
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Makhachev: 14 sig / 4 TD · Tsarukyan: 13 sig / 1 TD
Islam Makhachev
Arman Tsarukyan
22
Sig strikes landed
12
40
Sig strikes attempted
31
48
Total strikes landed
32
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.5
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
267s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
29%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W4

Islam Makhachev

29-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database 6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
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W UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
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W UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
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W UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
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L UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
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Blue corner

Arman Tsarukyan

"Ahalkalakets"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23