Main
Heavyweight
Alistair Overeem vs Aleksei Oleinik
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik
·Yubileyny Sports Palace
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alistair Overeem
Aleksei Oleinik
27%
73%
Why
80"
Reach
80"
39
Age
Δ 3y
42
48-19
Career record
Δ 6 pp
61-17-1
W1
Current streak
W2
15
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Overeem: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Oleinik: 38 sig / 0 TD
Alistair Overeem
Aleksei Oleinik
24
Sig strikes landed
18
40
Sig strikes attempted
42
33
Total strikes landed
38
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
0.7
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
104s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
11%
KO/TKO
68%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alistair Overeem
"The Demolition Man"
48-19
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
15 fights · 9-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
L
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Aleksei Oleinik
"The Boa Constrictor"
61-17-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
42
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—
W
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
L
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—