Back to UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik
Main Heavyweight

Sergei Pavlovich vs Marcelo Golm

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik ·Yubileyny Sports Palace
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Sergei Pavlovich
Marcelo Golm
85% 15%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 8"
76"
27
Age
Δ 0y
27
21-4
Career record
Δ 24 pp
6-4
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Pavlovich: 17 sig / 0 TD · Golm: 5 sig / 0 TD
Sergei Pavlovich
Marcelo Golm
40
Sig strikes landed
28
69
Sig strikes attempted
56
51
Total strikes landed
34
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.2
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
129s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
65%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Sergei Pavlovich

21-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
84"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
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Blue corner
L2

Marcelo Golm

6-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
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L UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
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W UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
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