Back to UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik
Main Women's Flyweight

Roxanne Modafferi vs Antonina Shevchenko

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik ·Yubileyny Sports Palace
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Roxanne Modafferi
Antonina Shevchenko
49% 51%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
37
Age
Δ 2y
34
25-22
Career record
Δ 20 pp
11-4
L1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Modafferi: 33 sig / 5 TD · Shevchenko: 64 sig / 0 TD
Roxanne Modafferi
Antonina Shevchenko
53
Sig strikes landed
79
127
Sig strikes attempted
165
85
Total strikes landed
91
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
5.3
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
235s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
82%
KO/TKO
6%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Roxanne Modafferi

"The Happy Warrior"
25-22
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
W The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
L The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
—
L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—
Blue corner
W1

Antonina Shevchenko

"La Pantera"
11-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
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