Prelims1
Heavyweight
Marcin Tybura vs Shamil Abdurakhimov
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik
·Yubileyny Sports Palace
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marcin Tybura
Shamil Abdurakhimov
76%
24%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
33
Age
Δ 4y
38
28-11
Career record
Δ 1 pp
21-8
W1
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Tybura: 28 sig / 0 TD ·
Abdurakhimov: 36 sig / 0 TD
Marcin Tybura
Shamil Abdurakhimov
39
Sig strikes landed
28
79
Sig strikes attempted
65
62
Total strikes landed
44
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
151s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Marcin Tybura
"Tybur"
28-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
W
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Shamil Abdurakhimov
"Abrek"
21-8
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—