Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jalin Turner
Matt Frevola
71%
29%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 6"
71"
24
Age
Δ 5y
29
16-9
Career record
Δ 6 pp
11-6-2
W1
Current streak
D1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Turner: 35 sig / 0 TD ·
Frevola: 31 sig / 4 TD
Jalin Turner
Matt Frevola
34
Sig strikes landed
19
78
Sig strikes attempted
46
43
Total strikes landed
28
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
0.6
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
48s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jalin Turner
"The Tarantula"
16-9
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—
L
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
Blue corner
D1
Matt Frevola
"The SteamRolla"
11-6-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 0-1
Last 2
D
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—