Prelims1
Flyweight
Wilson Reis vs Alexandre Pantoja
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
·State Farm Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Wilson Reis
Alexandre Pantoja
21%
79%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
24-10
Career record
Δ 13 pp
31-6
W1
Current streak
W2
12
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Reis: 1 sig / 1 TD ·
Pantoja: 23 sig / 0 TD
Wilson Reis
Alexandre Pantoja
26
Sig strikes landed
43
80
Sig strikes attempted
90
47
Total strikes landed
66
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
6.9
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
194s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Wilson Reis
24-10
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
Blue corner
W2
Alexandre Pantoja
"The Cannibal"
31-6
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
L
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—