Prelims1
Middleweight
Kevin Holland vs Gerald Meerschaert
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje
·Xfinity Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kevin Holland
Gerald Meerschaert
68%
32%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 4"
78"
26
Age
Δ 5y
31
30-15
Career record
Δ 5 pp
37-23
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Holland: 27 sig / 1 TD ·
Meerschaert: 10 sig / 6 TD
Kevin Holland
Gerald Meerschaert
41
Sig strikes landed
41
78
Sig strikes attempted
83
68
Total strikes landed
47
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.0
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
140s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
43%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
30-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
L
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
Blue corner
L1
Gerald Meerschaert
"GM3"
37-23
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
—
L
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—