Main
Featherweight
Josh Emmett vs Michael Johnson
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje
·Xfinity Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Emmett
Michael Johnson
72%
28%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
34
Age
Δ 1y
33
19-8
Career record
Δ 14 pp
26-20
L1
Current streak
W2
6
UFC fights in our DB
20
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Emmett: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
Johnson: 24 sig / 0 TD
Josh Emmett
Michael Johnson
54
Sig strikes landed
62
135
Sig strikes attempted
143
57
Total strikes landed
69
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
54s
Control time
32s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
4%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Josh Emmett
19-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
L
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
Blue corner
W2
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
26-20
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
20 fights · 11-9
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
L
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—