Main
Women's Strawweight
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje
·Xfinity Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
58%
42%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 2"
62"
34
Age
Δ 0y
33
16-11
Career record
Δ 0 pp
19-13
L1
Current streak
W2
8
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kowalkiewicz: 57 sig / 0 TD ·
Waterson-Gomez: 64 sig / 2 TD
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
56
Sig strikes landed
68
144
Sig strikes attempted
154
84
Total strikes landed
92
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.2
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
131s
Control time
178s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
16-11
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
L
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
L
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
Blue corner
W2
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
"The Karate Hottie"
19-13
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—