Main
Middleweight
David Branch vs Jack Hermansson
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje
·Xfinity Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
David Branch
Jack Hermansson
51%
49%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 0"
78"
38
Age
Δ 7y
31
22-7
Career record
Δ 4 pp
25-10
L1
Current streak
W2
8
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Branch: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Hermansson: 3 sig / 1 TD
David Branch
Jack Hermansson
18
Sig strikes landed
30
48
Sig strikes attempted
62
41
Total strikes landed
46
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.2
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
208s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
David Branch
22-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
L
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
Blue corner
W2
Jack Hermansson
"The Joker"
25-10
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
W
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—