Main
Lightweight
Edson Barboza vs Justin Gaethje
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje
·Xfinity Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Edson Barboza
Justin Gaethje
25%
75%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 5"
70"
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
25-14
Career record
Δ 21 pp
28-5
W1
Current streak
W1
20
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Barboza: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Gaethje: 20 sig / 0 TD
Edson Barboza
Justin Gaethje
63
Sig strikes landed
66
160
Sig strikes attempted
123
71
Total strikes landed
81
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
20s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
25-14
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
20 fights · 14-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
Blue corner
W1
Justin Gaethje
"The Highlight"
28-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—