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Prelims1 Lightweight

Ross Pearson vs Desmond Green

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje ·Xfinity Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Ross Pearson
Desmond Green
24% 76%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
34
Age
Δ 5y
30
20-17
Career record
Δ 18 pp
23-9
L1
Current streak
L1
23
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Pearson: 12 sig / 0 TD · Green: 25 sig / 1 TD
Ross Pearson
Desmond Green
44
Sig strikes landed
62
106
Sig strikes attempted
144
53
Total strikes landed
74
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
67s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Ross Pearson

"The Real Deal"
20-17 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 23 fights · 10-12
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
L UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
L UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
Blue corner
L1

Desmond Green

"The Predator"
23-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
W UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—