Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Marina Rodriguez vs Jessica Aguilar
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje
·Xfinity Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Marina Rodriguez
Jessica Aguilar
62%
38%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 2"
63"
32
Age
Δ 5y
37
17-6-3
Career record
Δ 4 pp
20-9
D1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rodriguez: 118 sig / 0 TD ·
Aguilar: 50 sig / 0 TD
Marina Rodriguez
Jessica Aguilar
49
Sig strikes landed
48
113
Sig strikes attempted
95
78
Total strikes landed
77
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.1
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
137s
Control time
170s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Marina Rodriguez
17-6-3
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-0
Last 1
D
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
Blue corner
L1
Jessica Aguilar
"Jag"
20-9
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
L
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
L
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—