Prelims1
Bantamweight
Marlon Vera vs Frankie Saenz
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis
·Bridgestone Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marlon Vera
Frankie Saenz
83%
17%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
26
Age
Δ 12y
39
24-12-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
14-7
W2
Current streak
W2
10
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Vera: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Saenz: 4 sig / 0 TD
Marlon Vera
Frankie Saenz
55
Sig strikes landed
47
121
Sig strikes attempted
95
69
Total strikes landed
64
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.70
Knockdowns
0.00
87s
Control time
158s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Marlon Vera
"Chito"
24-12-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—
W
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
W2
Frankie Saenz
14-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—