Back to UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis
Prelims1 Featherweight

Bryce Mitchell vs Bobby Moffett

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis ·Bridgestone Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Bryce Mitchell
Bobby Moffett
74% 26%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
24
Age
Δ 4y
29
19-4
Career record
Δ 10 pp
13-5
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mitchell: 17 sig / 0 TD · Moffett: 9 sig / 5 TD
Bryce Mitchell
Bobby Moffett
40
Sig strikes landed
28
74
Sig strikes attempted
68
56
Total strikes landed
43
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.6
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
154s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Bryce Mitchell

"Thug Nasty"
19-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
Blue corner

Bobby Moffett

"The Wolfman"
13-5 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 0-0