Main
Heavyweight
Curtis Blaydes vs Justin Willis
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis
·Bridgestone Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Curtis Blaydes
Justin Willis
78%
22%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
19-7
Career record
Δ 9 pp
9-2
L1
Current streak
W4
8
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Blaydes: 22 sig / 7 TD ·
Willis: 2 sig / 0 TD
Curtis Blaydes
Justin Willis
38
Sig strikes landed
33
92
Sig strikes attempted
67
59
Total strikes landed
41
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.1
4.9
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
227s
Control time
15s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Curtis Blaydes
"Razor"
19-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
8 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
W
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
Blue corner
W4
Justin Willis
"Big Pretty"
9-2
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—