Main
Lightweight
John Makdessi vs Jesus Pinedo
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis
·Bridgestone Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
John Makdessi
Jesus Pinedo
32%
68%
Why
34
Age
Δ 11y
23
19-9
Career record
Δ 6 pp
17-5-1
W2
Current streak
W1
15
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Makdessi: 73 sig / 0 TD ·
Pinedo: 37 sig / 0 TD
John Makdessi
Jesus Pinedo
66
Sig strikes landed
65
141
Sig strikes attempted
152
75
Total strikes landed
75
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.1
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
25s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
John Makdessi
"The Bull"
19-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
15 fights · 9-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
L
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
Blue corner
W1
Jesus Pinedo
"El Mudo"
17-5-1
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—