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Main Welterweight

Stephen Thompson vs Anthony Pettis

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis ·Bridgestone Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Stephen Thompson
Anthony Pettis
40% 60%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
36
Age
Δ 4y
32
17-10-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
24-11
L1
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
15

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Thompson: 47 sig / 0 TD · Pettis: 32 sig / 0 TD
Stephen Thompson
Anthony Pettis
66
Sig strikes landed
56
129
Sig strikes attempted
117
73
Total strikes landed
64
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
68s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Stephen Thompson

"Wonderboy"
17-10-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 13 fights · 9-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
—
W UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
L UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
D UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
Blue corner
L1

Anthony Pettis

"Showtime"
24-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 15 fights · 8-7
Last 5
L UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
L UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
W UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
L UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—