Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Marc Diakiese
Joe Duffy
61%
39%
Why
73"
Reach
73"
26
Age
Δ 5y
31
17-8
Career record
Δ 5 pp
16-6
L3
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Diakiese: 63 sig / 3 TD ·
Duffy: 15 sig / 1 TD
Marc Diakiese
Joe Duffy
35
Sig strikes landed
36
84
Sig strikes attempted
89
49
Total strikes landed
46
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
129s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Marc Diakiese
"Bonecrusher"
17-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
L
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
Blue corner
L1
Joe Duffy
"Irish"
16-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—