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Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Nicolae Negumereanu vs Saparbeg Safarov

UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal ·The O2 Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Nicolae Negumereanu
Saparbeg Safarov
78% 22%
Why
78"
Reach
78"
24
Age
Δ 8y
32
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Negumereanu: 11 sig / 0 TD · Safarov: 70 sig / 3 TD
Nicolae Negumereanu
Saparbeg Safarov
41
Sig strikes landed
27
74
Sig strikes attempted
62
64
Total strikes landed
44
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
140s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Nicolae Negumereanu

0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
L2

Saparbeg Safarov

9-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
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